Monday, May 7, 2007

A quick hand analysis from last night

Yesterday, or rather, this morning, I posted a hand where I had QQ and the board showed J-T-4 with two clubs on the board. Just as a recap, this was the hand in a summarized format:

FullTiltPoker Game #2366702250: Table John D'Agostino - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:11:17 ET - 2007/05/06

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [Qd Qc]
2 players limp in for $4
RecessRampage raises to $22 from the cutoff
1st limper folds
Stockzilla calls $18
*** FLOP *** [Jc Th 4c] (pot $51)
Stockzilla checks
RecessRampage bets $42
Stockzilla calls $42
*** TURN *** [Jc Th 4c] [3d]
Stockzilla checks
RecessRampage bets $120
Stockzilla raises to $336, and is all in
RecessRampage calls $206, and is all in
Stockzilla shows [Jd Jh]
RecessRampage shows [Qd Qc]
Uncalled bet of $10 returned to Stockzilla
*** RIVER *** [Jc Th 4c 3d] [Ts]
Stockzilla shows a full house, Jacks full of Tens
RecessRampage shows two pair, Queens and Tens
Stockzilla wins the pot ($787) with a full house, Jacks full of Tens

Now, when I called the all in, I had no information on this guy since this happened like in the first 5 hands I got dealt. When you have an overpair on a hand like this, I feel like there's a lot of danger here. I kinda felt like it was a bad call but I wasn't sure. Based on this analysis though, it appears it was a bad call. First off, here's how it looks when I include a pretty wide range of holdings, some of which may not make much sense based on the preflop betting...

Oops, and I just noticed that I didn't include J-10 as one of his holdings. When I do, and I recompute it, now my equity is down to 47.86% so, in fact, this confirms that it was a bad call by me. Now granted, I really didn't expect a hand as good as JJ since I figured he would have raised preflop with JJ and even TT. But even if I took those two hands out from the equation, my QQ is only at 51.11%... in other words, this was a very very slim/marginal edge that I was pushing and one that is most likely a bad call by me.

For me, I figured it was relatively a close call but I didn't think it was this close/almost bad for my hand. Interesting... nothing like a little poker geek moment.


Fuel55 said...

Its not wrong to check the turn in these situations and control the pot size.

Alan said...

I guess the hard part is distinguishing the difference between betting to protect against any draws/giving him a free card vs controlling the pot size. With no information on the opponent, would you really check this turn? That decent sized bet could have taken the pot down by pricing him out of any draws.

AnguilA said...

If you check-call the turn (where the bet may be just slightly under yours), you will be facing a larger bet in the river anyway, so I can't really see how would you actually control the pot size in that situation besides folding.

When you don't have info on the player it may be of use to see if he took his time to call your bet. If he did and then raised the turn, I think you have to give him more credit than if he insta-called (top pair or a draw in many many occasions in the lower limits...)