To bet or not to bet flopped sets...

That is the question. I read LJ's post about the flopped boat and so I thought maybe I'll throw my 2 cents in since I think most of my HH that I post here when I flop a set shows that I bet. But, like any other situation in poker, it always depends on when to bet and when not to bet. What does it depend on?

1) Position - are you first to act or last to act?
2) Texture of the flop - Are there any draws? Is it likely that it helped someone else?
3) Players - What type of players are in the hand with you? Are they players who would play their cards? Or are these players who would play based on their reads?
4) Preflop action - This is obvious right? Who raised preflop? Who called the raises?

So in other words, betting a flopped set isn't automatic. Admittedly, I probably bet out a flopped set about 60-70% of the time. And there are times where I make close to nothing. But, that is made up by the times that I disguise my sets well and stack another player.

So, what's the benefit to betting out a set vs slowplaying them? Well, against a savvy opponent, you risk not making any money or letting them catch up to a better hand. For example, let's say you have 66 in the BB. An MP player makes a standard pot sized raise and a player in the CO calls. Of course, you call to and to your delight, flop comes A-J-6. Now let's say here that you check. The initial raiser from MP bets 80% of the pot which is a standard bet that he puts out. Let's also say that you don't have much info about these players and you haven't seen them go out of line much. CO folds and it's now back to you. If you raise here (ie check raise), unless the MP is a total donkey, you're gonna slow down the action considerably. Even if the opponent has AK, it is likely that he'll go into a call down mode as opposed to going to war with you because at this point, based on the sequence, it's very likely that you made two pair, flopped a set, etc. So, on a board like this where there are two cards higher than my set, I like to bet out. Because if the MP has an ace with a face card, he would expect you to slow play a big hand. So, in other words, if you bet out from the BB with a flopped ace, it's very likely that he will put you on a weaker ace and quite frankly could play back at you. If he raises here, you can smooth call. That should sell the fact that you have a weaker ace and should be able to get a lot (if not all) of your opponent's chips.

Ok, so that's kind of a theory type talk so here are some hand histories.

Warning - this could get long...

1) Here's a situation where I flop a set but I have position

FullTiltPoker Game #3481974334: Table Bunch Grass - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:54:57 ET - 2007/09/06
Seat 1: NxtWrldChamp ($447)
Seat 2: cashsimmons ($427)
Seat 3: ImNotAngry ($210.55)
Seat 4: Stylistic ($400)
Seat 5: RecessRampage ($521)
Seat 6: TOAFK ($445.10)
Seat 7: sk1952 ($102.70)
Seat 8: Angela7 ($184.60)
Seat 9: s0othsayer1 ($160)
TOAFK posts the small blind of $2
sk1952 has 5 seconds left to act
sk1952 is sitting out
Angela7 posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [4s 4h]
s0othsayer1 folds
NxtWrldChamp folds
cashsimmons raises to $12
ImNotAngry folds
Stylistic folds
RecessRampage calls $12
TOAFK folds
Angela7 folds
*** FLOP *** [5h 4c 9c]
cashsimmons checks
RecessRampage checks

Heads up going into the flop, and I flop a set. Now, on this board, based on the preflop sequence, it seems too unlikely that the initial raiser has a hand. So, I want to see if maybe a face card will come up on the turn.

*** TURN *** [5h 4c 9c] [8h]
cashsimmons checks
RecessRampage bets $24 (into a $30 pot)

Well, unfortunately, no face card but at this point, I have to bet out because of the draws as well as building the pot. And notice that my bet here is the same amount I would bet if I had ace high and trying to steal the pot based strictly on position.

cashsimmons raises to $76
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage calls $52

His raise was a surprise and actually, it made me a little wary. I wondered if I was up against another set. But, since the chance of that is so small, I wanted to make sure that he thinks my hand is weak. So, I call, just to make it seem like I was the one who caught a flush draw on the turn and maybe bluffing with it. If a nonflush card comes, by me just calling here instead of going to war, it could induce a bluff.

*** RIVER *** [5h 4c 9c 8h] [Qd]
cashsimmons bets $120 <--- on cue
RecessRampage calls $120
*** SHOW DOWN ***
cashsimmons shows [As Js] Ace Queen high
RecessRampage shows [4s 4h] three of a kind, Fours
RecessRampage wins the pot ($419) with three of a kind, Fours

The only reason I called on the river is because there's not too many hands where I would get more money by raising that river. More often than not, I would only get called by a hand that beats me so I decided that it wasn't worth the raise. Again, this is an instance where I had position so I could play based on my opponent's action.

2) Here's a situation where I act first but the flop looks like it's helped my opponent.

FullTiltPoker Game #2410266705: Table Calico Pines - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:04:42 ET - 2007/05/12
Seat 1: TheNogre ($394)
Seat 2: Stylistic ($571)
Seat 3: Edge21 ($146)
Seat 4: guichdog ($480.20)
Seat 5: RecessRampage ($1,319.90)
Seat 6: JohnnyDeuces ($472)
Seat 7: Mister_Tea ($556.50)
Seat 8: Power Corp ($1,191.15)
Seat 9: tj2006 ($404.30)
Mister_Tea posts the small blind of $2
Power Corp posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [Jd Jh]
tj2006 folds
TheNogre folds
Stylistic folds
Edge21 calls $4
guichdog folds
RecessRampage raises to $18 <--- from the CO
JohnnyDeuces calls $18
Mister_Tea folds
Power Corp folds
Edge21 folds

*** FLOP *** [Ad Jc 9h]
RecessRampage bets $35 (into a $46 pot)
JohnnyDeuces calls $35

This is a great flop. Generally, when I flop a set, I love to see an ace on the board because if there was a preflop raise, it's very likely that the ace hit someone. So, just like that, I bet out, just like I would as a normal c-bet.

*** TURN *** [Ad Jc 9h] [4d]
RecessRampage bets $85 <--- now, I bet a little smaller in relation to the pot size to show that maybe I'm trying to fire another bullet but I'm not sure about where I stand

JohnnyDeuces raises to $200
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage raises to $716 <--- he clearly has the ace based on his raise and maybe even AJ. Nonetheless, I think my bet on the turn seemed weak to him and that's why he decided to raise with his ace. Now if I "overbet", it might seem more like I caught a diamond draw with a hand like KJ or something. Plus, why wait till the river to get all the money in???

JohnnyDeuces has 15 seconds left to act
JohnnyDeuces calls $219, and is all in
RecessRampage shows [Jd Jh]
JohnnyDeuces shows [Ac Td]
Uncalled bet of $297 returned to RecessRampage
*** RIVER *** [Ad Jc 9h 4d] [Tc]
RecessRampage shows three of a kind, Jacks
JohnnyDeuces shows two pair, Aces and Tens
RecessRampage wins the pot ($951) with three of a kind, Jacks
JohnnyDeuces is sitting out

Again, this was an instance where I flopped middle set and with the ace on the board, it seemed likely that it helped my opponent. If I had slowplayed or checkraised, there's a good chance that he folds his ace with a weak kicker. Instead, by betting out my monster, I conceal the set fairly well because his thought process should be that if I had AJ or JJ, why would I bet out instead of slowplaying? Again, understanding the players you are up against is very important here too.

3) If the table is shorthanded and is a very aggressive table, then your traditional "slow play" will work just fine.

FullTiltPoker Game #2804929646: Table Tarraso (6 max) - $3/$6 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:22:14 ET - 2007/06/29
Seat 1: cmglive ($616.50)
Seat 2: jp696 ($745.65)
Seat 3: Chuck Campbell ($114.10)
Seat 4: spitfire 2211 ($336)
Seat 5: stephenNUTS ($592.80), is sitting out
Seat 6: RecessRampage ($599)
spitfire 2211 posts the small blind of $3
RecessRampage posts the big blind of $6
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [5d 5c]
cmglive folds
jp696 raises to $18
Chuck Campbell calls $18
spitfire 2211 folds
RecessRampage calls $12
*** FLOP *** [Jc 7d 5s]
RecessRampage checks
jp696 bets $42
Chuck Campbell calls $42
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage raises to $150
jp696 raises to $727.65, and is all in
Chuck Campbell folds
RecessRampage calls $431, and is all in
jp696 shows [Kc Kh]
RecessRampage shows [5d 5c]
Uncalled bet of $146.65 returned to jp696
*** TURN *** [Jc 7d 5s] [8d]
*** RIVER *** [Jc 7d 5s 8d] [4d]
jp696 shows a pair of Kings
RecessRampage shows three of a kind, Fives
RecessRampage wins the pot ($1,258) with three of a kind, Fives

4) Now if your opponent is an aggro donkey, I guess it doesn't matter.

FullTiltPoker Game #2712383915: Table Cranwood (6 max) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:21:41 ET - 2007/06/19
Seat 1: sont ($182), is sitting out
Seat 2: Vanessa23 ($418.40)
Seat 3: easternlight ($367.80)
Seat 4: RecessRampage ($566.70)
Seat 5: ImAbOt ($398)
Seat 6: JugadorJR ($396)
JugadorJR posts the small blind of $2
Vanessa23 posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [6s 6d]
easternlight folds
RecessRampage calls $4
ImAbOt folds
JugadorJR calls $2
Vanessa23 checks.

FYI - this is a variation play. 80-90% of the time, I raise here.

*** FLOP *** [Qh 5s 6h]
JugadorJR checks
Vanessa23 checks
RecessRampage bets $12
JugadorJR folds
Vanessa23 calls $12

Not c-betting here is extremely fishy. I limp, two checks, I have to bet. When you think about slowplaying, always ask yourself what you would do if you completely miss? Then generally, go with what you would do had you missed the pot. That's my one general rule of thumb.

*** TURN *** [Qh 5s 6h] [2d]
Vanessa23 checks
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage bets $20 <--- I'm trying to act weak
Vanessa23 raises to $96
ImAbOt adds $2
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage calls $76
*** RIVER *** [Qh 5s 6h 2d] [7c]
Vanessa23 bets $306.40, and is all in
RecessRampage calls $306.40
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Vanessa23 shows [9h 3h] Queen Nine high
RecessRampage shows [6s 6d] three of a kind, Sixes
RecessRampage wins the pot ($837.80) with three of a kind, Sixes
Vanessa23 is sitting out

5) If you know what your opponent have, just get it all in when you have the best of it.

FullTiltPoker Game #2503014312: Table Chaparral Summit - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:16:27 ET - 2007/05/24
Seat 1: WildDuces234 ($458.60)
Seat 2: PurnPup ($218)
Seat 3: iamdaisy ($374)
Seat 4: El Jaffe ($382.50)
Seat 5: dontfwita ($377.80)
Seat 6: pokerRN72 ($451.40)
Seat 7: klfjg ($208.30)
Seat 8: RecessRampage ($425.10)
Seat 9: Steve51137 ($268.40)
El Jaffe posts the small blind of $2
dontfwita posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [Jh Js]
pokerRN72 folds
klfjg folds
RecessRampage raises to $14
Steve51137 calls $14
WildDuces234 calls $14
PurnPup folds
iamdaisy folds
El Jaffe raises to $52 <--- obviously a monster right? Maybe a squeeze but most likely a monster.
dontfwita folds
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage calls $38 <--- I already know what he has so he might as well have it flipped over. Easy call. Either I hit or I stack him.
Steve51137 folds
WildDuces234 folds

The two that folded are retarded. What cards can you call a preflop raise with that you now have to fold? The pot odds are there so these guys shoulda called too unless they have a hand like AQ or AJ.

*** FLOP *** [9s Jc Th]
El Jaffe has 15 seconds left to act
El Jaffe bets $156 <--- Aces right?
RecessRampage raises to $373.10, and is all in <--- I know what you have. Let's get all the money in the pot.
El Jaffe calls $174.50, and is all in
RecessRampage shows [Jh Js]
El Jaffe shows [Ac Ah] <--- obviously
Uncalled bet of $42.60 returned to RecessRampage
*** TURN *** [9s Jc Th] [4h]
*** RIVER *** [9s Jc Th 4h] [6d]
RecessRampage shows three of a kind, Jacks
El Jaffe shows a pair of Aces
RecessRampage wins the pot ($794) with three of a kind, Jacks
El Jaffe is sitting out

I have a lot more hand histories to illustrate the point but this is becoming uber long so I'll stop here. Maybe I'll post the other hands tomorrow. I hope some of this illustration helps those of you who are looking to maximize your winnings with sets.