Thursday, September 20, 2007

Reply to all

***Contrary to what it may seem, this is a poker related post, I swear***

Personally, I'm a "reply to all" monkey. I guess I just tend to enjoy discussions and I want everyone to be included. Now I also know that there are people out there who hate it. You know, some people don't like getting their emails clogged up with bunch of responses from other people. But I'm a reply to all donkey. I mean, give me one sign that it's cool to "reply to all" and I'm in. Fantasy football threads? Reply to all. Poker hand discussion? Reply to all. Random note to everyone saying they're quitting their job so they are switching to a new email acct? Reply to all... unless they specifically say not to (which my friends have now learned to put as a disclaimer since they know that without that disclaimer, guys like me will throw our 2 cents to EVERYONE).

So where am I going with this and how is this tying into a poker post? Well, I guess this is how... so, as poker degenerates go, I end up having these discussions where occasionally, bunch of people start "replying to all" and throwing their 2 cents in. And I love it. I really do. It's like having your own 2+2 forums in your inbox without the stupid comments from some people who responds without thoughts.

But anyways... so, during one of these discussions, our favorite ATC player from Canada ("ATC" = any two cards for some of our new readers) once again cracked some poor soul's aces, breaking the poor guy's bank and his heart along the way. And that pushed me over the edge... no, not because he cracked some guy's AA with K6. But because it reminded me of this post from Anguila (and go visit his blog!!! I want some answers on his tournament questions that he's throwing out there too!).

Basically, this is where the question stems from. So, us cash game donks, like to post the hands where we play against a guy where we KNOW that he's got AA and we stack him. It's easy to play hands like connectors, one-gappers, maybe even two-gappers... or 5 gappers if you're Fuel or Lucko. Basically, if you know what the guy has, it's so easy to get all his money in. But let's say you're the one with AA. Now, how much of a donkey are you?

Now, I'm not gonna present retarded situations where the flop comes KQJ, all hearts, when you have two black aces and there's a bet and a raise in front of you. But I will present a few hands and I would love to know how to maximize your winnings/minimize your losses. And Anguila aka my fantasy football victim this coming weekend posted the question in regards to how to play AA early in a tournament when the stacks are deep. This is basically very similar to a cash game situation and so I thought this would be an interesting exercise.

In the following example, assume that the stacks are deep enough, ie full buy-in. And also, assume that you don't know anything about the player.

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [Ah Ac]
izzymond folds
RecessRampage raises to $14
aslobo calls $14
gtewks folds
ElbaRooni folds
JPhil007 folds
*** FLOP *** [Qc Tc 2s]
RecessRampage bets $24
aslobo raises to $70

What do you do here? Call, raise or fold? I'm guessing there's no way you're folding. That's too weak. What if you called and a blank hits the turn? Let's say you check and the opponent shoves. Then what? Or do you reraise here? If so how much? If you reraise and the guy comes over the top, what do you do? The reason I ask is if you raise here and he comes over the top, are you pot committed?

I would love to know what you all think.


SubZero said...

Good question. Think this will be a pot where you either win a medium pot, or lose a big one.
Assuming this is a $2/4 game, my line here is to re-raise. At this point you could be getting raised with anything from TP to a flush draw/OESD through to a set. Given you have the Ac, I think you reduce the likelihood of him getting frisky with a flush draw, and KcJc would normally be slowplayed in this spot. I think the flop is the time to find out if you're ahead. There is now $128 in the pot (6+14+14+24+70), and the action is on you. I'd raise it to $200. This would be the pressure point of the hand, stopping him from drawing profitably with anything other than an OESFD, and if he goes allin (for another $185 on top) then you can more comfortably fold your overpair .
Obviously if he calls and pushes the turn when a brick falls, then you have a tough decision to make....
Classic situation, and usually I fold when I'm ahead and call when I'm miles behind!

AnguilA said...

You know I like this post....

I have to point out a difference though between the first level of a deep stacked tournament and a cash game. In the cash game you have to take the best approach possible to maximize EV so if you lose but were holding a small edge vs the other player's range there's no problem since you can rebuy. MEanwhile, in a tournament you only have one life, so risking it because against the player's range you had a little +EV would be wrong in my opinion.

In any case I just find it very difficult to balance "making laydowns-playing weak".

Subzero: you would fold getting better than 3:1 after the reraise? Besides a set or two pair he can still have KK, AQ and KJc and do the same exact play...would it be -EV to call against his range of hands total range of hands getting betterthan 3:1??

I'm looking forward to lots of answers on this one!

SubZero said...

Anguila: "Subzero: you would fold getting better than 3:1 after the reraise? Besides a set or two pair he can still have KK, AQ and KJc and do the same exact play...would it be -EV to call against his range of hands total range of hands getting betterthan 3:1??"
That's the tough bit really. Without knowing your opponent, you really are guessing on this one. However, a 3rd allin raise from your opponent leaving you to act suggests the following: a) your opponent has the best hand [TT, QT, Jc9c etc] and wants all the money in now, or b) your opponent thinks they have the best hand ['TPTK', KK, KQ etc] and want all the money in now, or c) your opponent has the worst hand [66, Q2, 98] but can't stop themselves from pushing and praying.
I would estimate that against an unknown opponent a) will be most common, let's say 80%, with b) and c) coming in at 10% and 10% respectively. Given that you are being offered better than 3:1 by the pot but you guess you are behind closer to 4:1, I would fold. The action dictates it also: the flop raise to $200 put the most pressure possible on your opponent, and they still went allin. Thus, this final raise carries with it far more certainty of them solidly beating you.
IMO, folding will be keeping half your buyin from a situation where you are extremely unlikely to retain it.

jamyhawk said...

I'm the donkey who would re-raise and call a shove here. I am assuming I am ahead, as a flopped set would trap, IMO.

So I figure I am +EV after the flop. If he smooth calls, and a brick falls, I shove, still assuming I am ahead. If one of the draws appears to fill in, I slow down, real slow.

The biggest bummer is assuming you just sat down and don't know how this opponent plays. Usually you can get a read on betting behavior after only 1 or 2 orbits.

Anonymous said...

fold. villain is a extremely tight.

Gnome said...

Good post. I like the idea of reraising on the flop rather than waiting for a safe card because if you're already behind, there are no safe cards.
However, anonymous makes a good point that a fold is right against a tight player. A loss of $38 on the hand if you fold is no big deal at all. It's much better than getting busted.

Fuel55 said...

Jam or fold. Take the small lose or pray you can beat his draw (or set).