Thursday, September 20, 2007

To bet or not bet flopped sets (Part 2)

Since my FTP login problem continues and my bankroll challenge in PS (started with $95 on Monday, up to $300 as of today!!! woot!) is really not worth discussing strategies and such, I figured I'd continue with some more examples of what to do with flopped sets. Again, generally, I'm a big fan of not slowplaying sets because it appears more counterintuitive. Even the small probe bet these days seem like something that's starting to catch on. What do I mean? Someone flops a set, they have finally come around to learning that check raise isn't the ONLY way to play sets and so they bet a small amount. Like $10 into a $40 pot so that they could get raised, at which point, they come over the top and go crazy and again, advertise that they have a monster bet. Rather, I advocate that if you're a fairly frequent c-bettor, just bet out like you're c-betting with two overcards. In other words, let's say you have AJ from the CO. With two limpers ahead of you, you raise. The two limpers call. Flop comes 2-5-8. Check, check. What do you do? Do you c-bet? More often than not, I assume you will, as you should at this point. Well, if you have 88 in this situation, why do anything different? Again, this is key that you're a frequent c-bettor. If not and you're one of those guys that wait to see another face card, then do that. In other words, when you flop a set, don't do anything different. You might miss out on little extra bets here and there but you're also bound to hit big pots this way as well. You want examples? Fine, see below.

FullTiltPoker Game #2669388382: Table Mountain Home - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:16:04 ET - 2007/06/14
Seat 1: Ethan Hawke ($155.30)
Seat 2: DOpeyMAN ($109.55)
Seat 3: RecessRampage ($546.85)
Seat 4: czarcaesarxx ($574.40)
Seat 5: pokerRN72 ($398)
Seat 6: vpkozel ($396.20)
Seat 7: pochacco ($160)
Seat 8: Donkey_Punch_9 ($966.25)
Seat 9: 731731 ($171.95)
Donkey_Punch_9 posts the small blind of $2
731731 posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #6

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [8s 8d]
Ethan Hawke calls $4
DOpeyMAN folds
RecessRampage raises to $18
czarcaesarxx calls $18
pokerRN72 folds
vpkozel folds
Donkey_Punch_9 folds
731731 calls $14
Ethan Hawke calls $14

LOL - No respect for my raise with MP. But then again, with a hand like 88, I'm still wanting to hit a set with so many callers so not necessarily a bad thing.

*** FLOP *** [3c 8h 5s]
731731 checks
Ethan Hawke checks
RecessRampage bets $40 <--- cuz I'm a man
czarcaesarxx has 15 seconds left to act
czarcaesarxx raises to $110 <--- thank you!!!
731731 raises to $153.95, and is all in
Ethan Hawke folds
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage raises to $528.85, and is all in
czarcaesarxx folds
RecessRampage shows [8s 8d]
731731 shows [Qh Qc]
Uncalled bet of $374.90 returned to RecessRampage

Ok... as you can see, I made a BIIIIIIIIIIG mistake here. I started off good. I bet out this flop with what appears to be a normal c-bet on a board that was likely that it didn't help anyone. I have top set so I have the nuts at this point. And yet I bet out $40 which isn't huge but certainly over half the pot. Fairly typical for a c-bet "to find out where I'm at." As if on cue, I get raised. Even better when there's a reraise. Except then I got excited and I made a donkey move. I should have just smooth called as opposed to shoving and indicating I have a monster. I mean even if the other guy didn't put me on top set, he had to put me on AA or KK at that point so he probably mucks his TT or whatever it is he had. If I just smooth call, he would have had to call based on pot odds and I woulda made more money out of the deal. VERY BAD MISTAKE!

*** TURN *** [3c 8h 5s] [6h]
*** RIVER *** [3c 8h 5s 6h] [2s]
RecessRampage shows three of a kind, Eights
731731 shows a pair of Queens
RecessRampage wins the pot ($488.90) with three of a kind, Eights

I remember being pissed off at myself for making such a donkey mistake. Yeah, I can tell you I was trying to overbet for value but at that point, with the raise and a reraise, that ain't overbetting for value. That's just a donkey getting excited. Going through this hand history is starting to piss me off again. That's at least another hundred or two that I could've won. DAMMIT!!!!

Ok, moving on...

FullTiltPoker Game #2390209391: Table Canyon Magic - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:35:17 ET - 2007/05/09
Seat 1: jbezell ($164.40)
Seat 2: nelsonsheu ($527.80)
Seat 3: Hollywoodndn ($425.60)
Seat 4: ur_an_ASSet ($559.90)
Seat 5: Krantzy85 ($157.80)
Seat 6: RecessRampage ($431)
Seat 7: mgertz ($95.60)
Seat 8: nsewell4 ($405.60)
Seat 9: TAR109 ($398)
mgertz posts the small blind of $2
nsewell4 posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [2d 2s]
TAR109 folds
jbezell folds
nelsonsheu folds
Hollywoodndn raises to $18
ur_an_ASSet folds
Krantzy85 folds
RecessRampage calls $18 <--- from the button against a similar size stack
mgertz folds
nsewell4 folds

*** FLOP *** [6h 3h 2h] <--- do I flop a set every time????
Hollywoodndn checks
RecessRampage bets $30
Hollywoodndn calls $30

Again, I bet out to make it seem like I'm just trying to steal when the initial raiser checks to me. Plus on a board like this, if the guy already has a flush, I could be screwed. But, he'll also call with a hand like AK with one heart or A-any face with a heart I guess. So, I gotta bet to protect my hand too.

*** TURN *** [6h 3h 2h] [7s]
Hollywoodndn checks
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act <--- for dramatic effect a la Fuel55
RecessRampage bets $50
Hollywoodndn raises to $100
RecessRampage calls $50

So now that I got raised, I decided to slow down. Even though it may seem unlikely that he has a flush, I'm not liking the way the hand is developing... He check calls the all flush board on the flop and checkraises me the minimum amount on the turn when a blank hits. Now, I'm thinking he could actually have a flush or he might have a set. Paranoid? Maybe. But I think it's important to be aware that flopped sets aren't always gold.

*** RIVER *** [6h 3h 2h 7s] [4c]
Hollywoodndn bets $125
RecessRampage calls $125

Again, I wasn't gonna fold here. Board is sufficiently dangerous but based on his previous play, unless he had 55 with a 5 of hearts, this play doessn't make sense. So, I could be beat with a better set or a flush. But I also felt that his $125 bet was a little high for someone wanting a call. Granted, maybe considering the pot size, it wasn't. But I'm getting at least 3:1 pot odds so I have to call with a set here. But obviously, no point in raising here.

*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hollywoodndn shows [Qc 6c] (a pair of Sixes)
RecessRampage shows [2d 2s] (three of a kind, Twos)
RecessRampage wins the pot ($549) with three of a kind, Twos

It also helps when you flop a set with one high card that is likely to have helped someone... like below:

FullTiltPoker Game #3047478420: Table Double Arrow - $3/$6 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:24:44 ET - 2007/07/24
Seat 1: RecessRampage ($1,304.70)
Seat 2: kingpin100 ($304.80)
Seat 3: bigbuck79 ($208)
Seat 4: szim3 ($534)
Seat 5: playme4blood ($856.30)
Seat 6: lfcuffari ($314.70)
Seat 7: ODB235 ($114)
Seat 8: benzodiazepine ($618.75)
Seat 9: 2BOO2BOO ($600)
ODB235 posts the small blind of $3
benzodiazepine posts the big blind of $6
The button is in seat #6

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [Js Jd]
2BOO2BOO folds
RecessRampage raises to $21
kingpin100 folds
bigbuck79 folds
szim3 folds
playme4blood folds
lfcuffari calls $21
ODB235 folds
benzodiazepine calls $15

*** FLOP *** [Jh Kh 3d] <--- EVERY TIME!!!
benzodiazepine checks
RecessRampage bets $40
lfcuffari calls $40
benzodiazepine folds

I obviously bet this sufficient scary, draw heavy board. Plus, it's likely that someone has a K out there with two callers, right?

*** TURN *** [Jh Kh 3d] [Ac]
RecessRampage bets $70
lfcuffari calls $70

I had mixed feelings about this A. If the dude has Q-10, he just caught me. If he has a hand like AK, I'm getting his entire stack. But if he has a hand like KQ, he might slow down. So I just fire out a half pot bet to see what ensues. He just calls which means he's trapping me with a monster or his hand is mediocre.

*** RIVER *** [Jh Kh 3d Ac] [9c]
RecessRampage bets $100
lfcuffari calls $100

The 9 is obviously a blank so now, I'm just trying to figure out how much I can get out of this guy. Since he didn't have too much behind him, I was worried that if I put him all in, he wouldn't call me.

*** SHOW DOWN ***
RecessRampage shows [Js Jd] three of a kind, Jacks
lfcuffari mucks [Qh Ks] - a pair of Kings
RecessRampage wins the pot ($483) with three of a kind, Jacks

Another example of betting out is key when there is an A or a K on the board because if you raised preflop and you flop a set, it's almost a guarantee that you will get a decent chunk out of your opponent.

FullTiltPoker Game #2357118793: Table Pagentry (6 max) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:04:57 ET - 2007/05/05
Seat 1: Pay My Bills B ($186.50)
Seat 2: becca18 ($68.45)
Seat 3: pa1414 ($270.80)
Seat 4: Gambler_1972 ($213.40)
Seat 5: RecessRampage ($319.15)
Seat 6: YourDimePal ($200)
RecessRampage posts the small blind of $1
YourDimePal posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [Qd Qs]
Pay My Bills B folds
becca18 folds
pa1414 folds
Gambler_1972 raises to $4
RecessRampage raises to $14 <--- I always reraise ghey minraisers
YourDimePal folds
Gambler_1972 calls $10

*** FLOP *** [As 9c Qh]
RecessRampage bets $20
Gambler_1972 calls $20

Because he minraised, I wasn't sure if he had an A or not. But I had to bet out to find out. If he folds, I wasn't gonna make much more money regardless of what I did so for the bigger picture approach, it's still key to bet out. And his call was great. Now, that made me think he has an A. He has to right? Either that or a hand like J-10. Either way, this flop helped him so I'm gonna try to get more money out of this clown.

*** TURN *** [As 9c Qh] [4s]
RecessRampage bets $50
Gambler_1972 calls $50

A blank falls so it's a no brainer bet.

*** RIVER *** [As 9c Qh 4s] [Jd]
RecessRampage bets $60
Gambler_1972 raises to $129.40, and is all in
RecessRampage calls $69.40

A harmless jack falls. I was just trying to squeeze a little bit more out of this guy when to my delight, he just shoves the rest of his chips in.

*** SHOW DOWN ***
Gambler_1972 shows [Js Ac] (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
RecessRampage shows [Qd Qs] (three of a kind, Queens)
RecessRampage wins the pot ($425.80) with three of a kind, Queens
Gambler_1972 is sitting out

Jackace, no good!!!

And that my friends, conclude this flopped set series. I think between Part 1 and Part 2, you guys get the message in terms of why betting out flopped sets are good. Don't let one or two instances where everyone folds when you flop your elusive set deter you. In the long run, it is a much better approach to a) build the pot and b) disguise the fact that you just hit a monster.


Fuel55 said...

Hey lucksack - you flop more sets in a day than I do in a month.

Love the homage though:

RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act <--- for dramatic effect a la Fuel55

lj said...

all bow to the cash king.

ckbluffer said...

The last two times I flopped sets, so did my opponent.

Maybe I need to take more poker lessons.

Mike Maloney said...

I hate ducks. hate.

Good post, I totally agree with what you had to say.

Now if you could just write a post on how one can improve their game so that they can hit as many sets as you, I'd be gold.

Gnome said...

I like the calldown with the set of ducks. Well played.