Saturday, August 25, 2007

Overbet for insurance!

I have to admit... I've been getting pretty lucky this month. Not as many coolers or setup hands and when they do happen, they seem to happen against shorter stacks so it doesn't hurt quite as much. Still hurts to flop top 2 when someone flops the bottom set but what can you do? And again, the few times that that's happened, it's been against guys who buy in short so it doesn't hurt my roll as much and it's easier to bounce back. Another reason I'm getting pretty lucky is that the draws are missing the people who are chasing against me when I have a monster hand. Those are two good reasons why I'm doing well this month. And this illustrates that. But as always, I'll include my thoughts about why overbetting here is a must. I think this is fairly basic, in tournament or cash play.

Basically, if you are contending for the pot against two opponents but one of them is all in and you currently have the nuts on the board where two guys are drawing, you want to get all your money in play so that even if the short stack hits his draws, there will be a sizable side pot to make up for the loss. Now granted, if the other big stack hits, you lose your entire stack but keep in mind that by doing this, you're not up against the combined number of outs for both opponents but rather, you're setting up two separate pots, each with separate number of outs. What do I mean? Well, see below.

FullTiltPoker Game #3354862459: Table Calico Pines - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:19:18 ET - 2007/08/24
Seat 1: lv22 ($369.80)
Seat 2: noabowe ($398.70)
Seat 3: dirtypb ($76)
Seat 4: sureshdb ($673.60)
Seat 5: Yettiman ($427.80)
Seat 6: RecessRampage ($364.60)
Seat 7: rnmvsn ($100)
Seat 8: JohnnyGotShadow ($483.60)
Seat 9: themagistrat ($475)
RecessRampage posts the small blind of $2
rnmvsn has 5 seconds left to act
rnmvsn posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [8h Ts]
JohnnyGotShadow calls $4
themagistrat folds
lv22 has 15 seconds left to act
lv22 calls $4
noabowe calls $4
dirtypb folds
sureshdb calls $4
Yettiman folds
RecessRampage calls $2
rnmvsn checks

Very interesting table to start off here. It's rare that everyone limps like this and no one raises but I think one recent trend I've noticed is that when there's an UTG limper, people tend to be more careful with their raises because the whole "limp with AA or KK and then repop when a late position raises" move became so popular. So, I'm sitting in the SB with 8-10 which is in the same family of the hands I'm starting to really like (the one gappers) and I just have to call $2 more into a pot that contains $22 before I limp.

*** FLOP *** [4s 9d 7d]
RecessRampage checks
rnmvsn checks
JohnnyGotShadow checks
lv22 checks
noabowe checks
sureshdb bets $19.95
RecessRampage calls $19.95
rnmvsn calls $19.95
JohnnyGotShadow folds
lv22 folds
noabowe folds

Very interesting flop. And very draw heavy. Two diamonds give someone a flush draw, I have the OESD, and yet it gets checked around to the button who bets $20 into a $24 pot. I'm not too crazy about chasing an OESD with two flush cards because more often than not, I could be drawing to 6 rather than 8 outs (the 2 cards that complete my straight could complete a flush for someone else). So I actually had to think about this call. Also keep in mind that someone else could be waiting to checkraise. With 6 people in the pot, that's not entirely impossible. But of course, I'm gonna want to see one more card. Folding here is not an option, IMO. I mean if it is, I wouldn't play 8-10 to begin with. Fortunately for me, the BB called as well, indicating he's got something or he's on a draw as well. And I say fortunate because no one checkraised. Now the pot is sweetened and it justifies my call.

*** TURN *** [4s 9d 7d] [6s] <--- gin!
RecessRampage checks
rnmvsn bets $12
sureshdb has 15 seconds left to act
sureshdb raises to $71.15

The best card in the deck came. The nondiamond 6. I currently have the absolute nuts with a 10 high straight but now, there are two flush draws out there. Now it's very unlikely that someone has spades but it's starting to become pretty heavy. The shorter stack led out with an interesting mini-bet of $12 into $80+ pot. The button raises to $71 so he obviously likes his hand enough. At this point, I'm happy to take the hand down if need be but I also want to price out whatever draws that are out there. Also, if I just call here and the short stack calls and if he's on a diamond draw and hits, I'm gonna lose this pot. I'm not sure what sureshdb has but he obviously likes his hand enough so in case he's the one drawing to a flush, I want to price him out. If he has a hand, then I want him to like it enough to call my overbet. So, no brainer here, this is what I did.

RecessRampage raises to $340.65, and is all in
rnmvsn calls $64.05, and is all in
sureshdb has 15 seconds left to act
sureshdb has requested TIME
sureshdb calls $269.50
RecessRampage shows [8h Ts]
rnmvsn shows [Kd Qd]
sureshdb shows [7c 7h]

Now notice here that there are two things I accomplished. One was that I got everyone's money in the pot with the best hand. But more importantly, I generated a side pot that would be large enough to withstand the loss of the main pot. And in effect, instead of fighting against two opponents, I am now fighting against one opponent for two different pots. Let me clarify that. If the three of us all had the same starting stack and so we all went in, then I would only be a 59.5% favorite. See below.

However, by shoving and creating two separate pots, this is what I ended up doing. Let's say that in the above example, I know that there's a flush draw and a boat draw (someone has trips). Now I don't know which one but let's just say one has one and the other has the... other. Yes, sometimes I astonish myself with how eloquent I am. There! There's a big word! Ok, I digress. So, as you saw above, combined, I'm only a 60% favorite. But, by isolating, even though for the main pot, I am still only a 60% favorite, I created a side pot where I am now at least a 77% favorite. That's an increase of 17% chance that I win. Pretty significant boost. The two pictures below show my chances of winning against each individual draws.

As you can see, if the bigger stack had a flush draw, I'm an 80% favorite to win the side pot. If he's on a boat draw, I'm a 77% favorite. Either way, I created somewhat of an "insurance" by shoving there and making the bigger stack commit and create a side pot. Even if I lose the virtual coin flip, I will now have a much better chance of taking down the sizable side pot. Well, this is what ended up happening.

*** RIVER *** [4s 9d 7d 6s] [Kh]
RecessRampage shows a straight, Ten high
sureshdb shows three of a kind, Sevens
RecessRampage wins the side pot ($529.20) with a straight, Ten high
rnmvsn shows a pair of Kings
RecessRampage wins the main pot ($309) with a straight, Ten high
rnmvsn is sitting out



Mike Maloney said...

Just curious on your thought process for checking the turn. Obviously you have the nuts at that point, but are you worried at all about it being checked around and giving everyone else a free card?

Alan aka RecessRampage said...

Yes, I am worried about it being checked around and giving everyone else a free card. So, I did consider betting here and there are times I will bet here. I'm not sure that for that, it's situation dependent as it is more of a variation in how I play my big hands. So, in that sense, I was really dependent on sureshdb who bet out on the flop to bet out again. Because this was fairly draw heavy, I knew one of my two opponents were on a draw. So, I wanted to isolate more than anything. So here, I definitely checked with the intent to raise.

Also, I guess why the checkraise as opposed to betting is that a) I wanted to isolate and b) whoever was going to fight for the pot with me, I wanted all their money in on this street. In other words, if I bet and I get two callers and a safe card drops, it's possible that they will fold to my bet on the river. Now of course, we know that most likely, it woulda worked out either way but for example, if the dude had AQ of diamonds and the river comes like it does, he'll fold to my bet on the river. Since I didn't know who was on the draw, I just wanted to make sure that if either one was chasing, they were going to have to pay a big price, ie for all their money.

Alan aka RecessRampage said...

One more thing. Let's say I check and it's checked around and a scare card comes. If it's a diamond, I'll most likely check call unless the short stack shoves and the other one calls. Then I'll fold the straight. If the board pairs, I'm just check calling. In other words, if it does check around, I'll acknowledge my mistake and now contend to minimize my loss.

Fuel55 said...

Well described.

Anonymous said...

Well played hand.

As you stated, checking the turn was brilliant, you got all the money in the pot with you as the favorite.

Excellent hand to analyze. Players should learn a lot from it.