Sunday, August 19, 2007

Dumb move? Or a great bluff?

The reason I would question this hand is because some (or most... or everyone) might think I have no business being in the hand by the time I pulled out a monster bluff on the river. But let me at least walk you through my thought process and you can tell me what you think...

Full Tilt Poker Game #3302573997: Table Copper Mesa - $3/$6 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:51:58 ET - 2007/08/19
Seat 1: check_kills1 ($636)
Seat 2: geoff77 ($343)
Seat 3: Villain ($2,385.80)
Seat 4: RecessRampage ($740.75)
Seat 5: Casey-Sparky ($354.90)
Seat 6: R0b5ter ($960.05)
Seat 7: Mi_Profile23 ($610.05)
Seat 8: dajmipare ($612)
Seat 9: Chris Finch ($603.05)
Chris Finch posts the small blind of $3
check_kills1 posts the big blind of $6
The button is in seat #8

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [9c 9h]
geoff77 folds
Villain raises to $18
RecessRampage calls $18
Casey-Sparky calls $18
R0b5ter folds
Mi_Profile23 folds
dajmipare has 15 seconds left to act
dajmipare raises to $60
Chris Finch folds
check_kills1 folds
Villain calls $42
RecessRampage calls $42
Casey-Sparky folds

Ok, preflop, I don't have any questions. But couple of things to note here. The villain is a VERY solid player, IMO. I've seen him conceal hands real well to get the most value and make nice moves. In other words, I was watching him closely and quite often, I wouldn't be able to put him on a hand. And when I did, I was wrong more than a few times. And personally, I think I have decent hand reading skills. So, that was enough to put me on alert. But, having said that, I wanted to be in a lot of hands that he was in because of his chip stack. He's one of the few guys I could double through.

*** FLOP *** [7d Js 4h]
Villain checks
RecessRampage checks
dajmipare has 15 seconds left to act <--- important, IMO
dajmipare bets $138
Villain calls $138
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage has requested TIME
RecessRampage calls $138

Ok, so this is becoming a big pot. Personally, this is where things get interesting. Dajmipare hesitates and then bets. I thought that there was a good chance that indicated AK. Of course, you can question me here but his betting sequence and his hesitation as well as the fact that he only bet $138 into a pot that at this point had close to $200 seemed more like AK. AND more importantly, the fact that I sniffed that means that the Villain definitely had to sniff that out as well. The only thing I couldn't figure out is what hand range would he not raise with here? And what does he put me on? At the price that was being offered here where the pot had close to $480 that's about a 3-1 and I had to call. Why? Because I knew I had AK beat which is what I put the other guy on. The Villain was where I couldn't quite figure out. I could see him calling here with an inferior pocket pair or a hand like QQ. AA or KK and I'm sure he woulda repopped preflop. So, having thought all that, I made the call.

*** TURN *** [7d Js 4h] [6h]
Villain checks
RecessRampage checks
dajmipare checks

The check on the confirms that dajmipare had AK. He figured one or both of us had a pocket pair so him betting was no good here. Now my 9s look very vulnerable. I mean I can't beat AJ (which I don't think the villain would call a preflop reraise with), I can't beat AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 77, 66, or 44. So, the only reasonable holding here that I can beat are 88 and 55.

*** RIVER *** [7d Js 4h 6h] [Tc]
Villain has 15 seconds left to act
Villain checks
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage has requested TIME

So the final card comes and my 9s go unimproved. This is an interesting situation but in my mind, the 10 falling on the river was really inconsequential. The reason being that I was already losing to TT so it's not like that hand did anything. The only reason I had to think real hard here was that I was afraid my 9s were no good. But there is no way the villain would not bet here if he had a set or better. So, based on that, he doesn't have JJ, TT, 77, 66, or 44. I already ruled out AA or KK because based on my observations of him, I was SURE that he would repop preflop (if I'm wrong, I pay the price). So now, I felt that he either had 88 or 55 or QQ. Based on how he played his overpair before which made me think he was a good player by controlling the pot size, I really didn't want to have to showdown this hand. This pot was big enough, I felt that I needed to take one last stab at it. And if he didn't have a set, there's no way he can call this...

RecessRampage bets $542.75, and is all in
dajmipare folds <--- AK was never good
Villain has 15 seconds left to act
Villain folds
Uncalled bet of $542.75 returned to RecessRampage
RecessRampage mucks
RecessRampage wins the pot ($618)

Villain later asks if I had AJ or a set. He told me that he had QQ. And that was the only way I could take that pot away from him.

I realize this was a very risky move... maybe even almost stupid, but I felt that at least my read was on and I really wanted to take this pot away from him. I am guessing most of you wouldn't be in the pot past the flop... but I hate giving up...


Sia said...

wow. I like this play. I'd do it myself but I don't have the marbles. With this kind of money at stake, I presume you are only willing to pull a move like this sparingly but betting him off QQ is pretty amazing. I'm not surprised he folded but obviously wouldn't have been surprised if he called either. The way you were playing the hand I would have definitely thought you had a set.
At the same time, if I were villain, I may have ruled out a set simply based on your all in after the river. I mean, if you had a set, with no draw on the board, I would think you'd make a value bet of 300 or so. With no value bet, i'm thinking you might be buying the pot and with QQ, i'd probably call. Worked out though. Nice play.

lj said...

i'm also shocked if he really folded QQ. i guess at those levels players might be higher level thinkers, but he also prob thinks you woulda raised pf w/ AA or KK, ruling you off those. so then the only thing that beats him is a set, or 98...i would be more likely to put you on 98 there than a set, especially since you would have turned oesd, but given his stack i'd be blown away if he really had QQ and laid it down.

lightning36 said...

Some of the same thinking here. If he really had QQ, you'd think he would almost have to place a bet on the river and/or call your raise. Of course, to me it looks like he misplayed his hand completely after the flop.

Anonymous said...

Your read is a joke if you really believe he folded QQ to you.

"The Villain was where I couldn't quite figure out. I could see him calling here with an inferior pocket pair or a hand like QQ. AA or KK and I'm sure he woulda repopped preflop. So, having thought all that, I made the call."

SubZero said...

Hey Alan. Thanks for the advice on playing in the US, was very reassuring! Don't think I'll be needing to apply for a VISA for a while though, as my girlfriend has opted against working a year in the States.
Very good work on the river bet, you played it well and getting 2 players to fold is always commendable. IMO the villain made 2 mistakes which caused him to lose the pot: not betting/raising the flop, and not calling the river bet with an overpair when everyone checked the turn. A set would usually bet against more than one player on the turn, especially on a board with a live flush and straight draw. But his loss equals your gain amigo....

ps Please link to my page if possible...

Mike Maloney said...

Hmm, crazy play, I can't decide if you're a donkey or not. Risky play, but also a pretty good read. I'm not entirely sure he had QQ, seems like he could easily have 88 there, and once you called behind him on the flop, he was done with the hand. QQ is possible.

Fuel55 said...

I can't tell you how much I hate this hand.

1. No way Villian folded QQ. He bets somewhere along the line for sure.

2. I hate the all-in on the river - you and I both know this looks weak. Value betting looks stronger and is more likely to induce folds.

3. Why are you checking the turn? Good grief! They both had AK or AQ - that is a given and you could have reraised the flop bet of $138 and f not you MUST bet the turn. Its not so obvious what they have on the flop but Villian's check on the turn and prior read on the player with position should have signaled "FIRE".

jamyhawk said...

Balls for sure. I don't think I could fire on the river like that.
However, I would have had to fire on the turn. At least find out where I am at.
I agree no QQ out there.

And thanks for the link. I'm truly honored.

R0b5ter said...

I was sitting at this table as well (R0b5ter) but didn't actually play this hand. I think you are in over your head on this hand.

You are almost sure dajmipare, who is a very tricky and good player, has AK after his bet on the flop. However I can definitely see him betting this amount on this relatively harmless flop. Furthermore you have a cold caller (Villian). This could easily be a slow played set or a high PP. Just fold your hand here and don't over analyse situation like this.