Monday, May 12, 2008

MTT question and a set over set question

This was an interesting weekend. Leading up to Sunday night, it was a fairly profitable one and I was feeling pretty good about my game. I was playing both on Pokerstars and Fulltilt and on Sunday, I was even taking a shot at being a tournament donk... At one point, I was three tabling, none of which were cash games... Crazy!

I played in two FTOPS 9 Satellites, both of which I won an entry to so I decided to go ahead and play in the FTOPS 9, which was a $322 buyin NLHE event. I busted out somewhere in the middle of the pack when I squeezed with TT. Turns out, the guy who smooth called had AK and I lost the race. The unfortunate thing was that few hands before that, I had AQ in the SB and I had full intention of resteal-shove based on my stack size when there's a raise and a reraise in front of me. I reluctantly fold, just to see a Q-Q-x flop... PUKE.

Well, at least I was profitable in the sense that I won 2 seats... except I used up all my profit when I went 0 for 4 in the 100 chip super turbo satellite... dammit...

One of the other tournaments I played in was the 24k or the 28k or something... something in the middle of the day. 1060ish runners, top 108 pays, I bust 110 when I CALL a jam from UTG with JJ. He has AK. One question was this... At the time, we both had about 20k in chips, I can't remember the blinds but I believe the M is somewhere around 5-7. We were both around top 50 in stack size so we're clearly not in desperation mode, though it was right before the third break so the blinds were about to go up. He jams UTG and I thought he wouldn't do it with AA or KK because he wants to maximize the amount he could win and with that stack size, there was just waaaaaay too much fold equity that a lot of middle pairs wouldn't call (unless of course, you're an idiot). So, my read was that his range was 88-QQ (I just couldn't imagine he would open shove with 77 or less, even though that's possible but I like to keep my opponent's range fairly conservative), AK, and maybe AQ. So, I called with JJ, and lose the race. If I win, I'm top 10 in stack. Is that a right call? Or, is there an argument to wait for a better situation? Thoughts?

Then came Sunday night. Again, I was feeling good about my game, I thought things were going well and then boom. I gave it all back and then some in a span of 2 hrs. AA < T6 (after a preflop raise and a flop bet, villain manages to turn 2 pair, at which point, given his shorter stack size, I was committed), KK < AA (against same villain who then proceeded to tell me I suck, mainly because he was pretty pissed at me by this time because after the AA < T6 hand, I was abusing him pretty badly - I will remember that motherfucker and I will search you every time). And then there was this hand...

Full Tilt poker Game #6381626175: Table Isola (6 max) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:34:30 ET - 2008/05/12
Seat 1: RecessRampage ($561.50)
Seat 2: badunkAAdonk ($644.70) <--- SB
Seat 3: AndTheRiverIs ($400) <--- BB
Seat 4: betwitnothin ($1,302.60)
Seat 5: phantombooth ($369.40)
Seat 6: MacDaddy34 ($507.60)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [2h 2d]
betwitnothin raises to $14
phantombooth folds
MacDaddy34 has 15 seconds left to act
MacDaddy34 calls $14
RecessRampage calls $14
badunkAAdonk calls $12
AndTheRiverIs calls $10

*** FLOP *** [3d 2s 9d]
badunkAAdonk checks
AndTheRiverIs checks
betwitnothin has 15 seconds left to act
betwitnothin bets $45
MacDaddy34 calls $45
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage calls $45
badunkAAdonk folds
AndTheRiverIs has 15 seconds left to act
AndTheRiverIs has requested TIME
AndTheRiverIs raises to $180
betwitnothin has 15 seconds left to act
betwitnothin has requested TIME
betwitnothin folds
MacDaddy34 folds
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage raises to $547.50, and is all in
AndTheRiverIs calls $206, and is all in
RecessRampage shows [2h 2d]
AndTheRiverIs shows [9c 9s]
Uncalled bet of $161.50 returned to RecessRampage
*** TURN *** [3d 2s 9d] [Ac]
*** RIVER *** [3d 2s 9d Ac] [Ah]
RecessRampage shows a full house, Twos full of Aces
AndTheRiverIs shows a full house, Nines full of Aces
AndTheRiverIs wins the pot ($929) with a full house, Nines full of Aces
RecessRampage adds $238.50

I clearly misplayed this hand. On the button, I probably shoulda raised but with so many callers and with me running bad (earlier in the evening at another table, JJ < AQs when all low but two diamond flop gives AQ of diamonds to checkraise me all in), I was actually afraid of bumping it up here because I thought if someone had two overs and a diamond, they would call and I would surely lose. So, I thought I would smooth call and hope for a nondiamond turn at which point, I am a larger statistical favorite... prob a poor thought process but one I cannot deny because of all the beats I was getting. I'm not crying about my bad beats but when it all happens in such a short time span, it really really hurts.

Anyways, I actually thought about folding in that spot. When the guy checkraised against 3 players, to me, that indicated extreme strength. And I couldn't see a guy do that with a draw to the flush because there was already a bettor and two callers. Obviously, someone already is on a flush draw. If he had a larger overpair, he woulda bumped it up preflop since he was BB. So, my gut instinct was that I was the sucker in a set over set situation. I was convinced enough that I type this to bayne before making the raise...

12:36 AM me: how strongly do you have to feel that you have bottom set and someone has higher set?
Bayne: PLO
me: vs a flush draw
Bayne: or HE
12:37 AM me: ye[
yep
set over set
I knew it
i shoulda folded

Would this violate the one person to a hand code? I don't think so since no matter what bayne says wouldn't affect what I do. If you think it does, tell me and I'll be mindful of it next time.

Cmitch and Gnome, after talking to them, felt that folding a set in this situation is almost always wrong. Cmitch also mentioned that I am only thinking about folding because I am running bad... true, but you know how sometimes you have the gut feeling? Last night, when I was dealt KK and when the idiot shoved all in for $400+ after I raised it to $14, I thought, "watch this, he's gonna have AA." And he did. My gut feeling was right on. In the above situation, I really came close to folding. I'm looking at it now and I really can't think of too many other hands that would play it like he did. Is folding a set really wrong?

I kept thinking about this chart of how often you are the under set in a set over set situation taken straight from Greylocks' blog...



I'm not saying that I should fear being an underset and fold 22-66 every time. But I think it's important to be cognizant of situations. If it's HU, I would never fold. I would chalk it up to a bad beat. But with that many players, to be honest, there was a fairly decent chance that there was another set. I mean there were 5 players seeing the flop and I have bottom set. That is far from being the nuts. Cmitch, I am still tilting a little but I think I've calmed down and I still could see a fold here and to be honest, I don't think it would be wrong. I don't think I am being results oriented. I don't know. It's very close but definitely not a clear cut all in situation for sure.

7 comments:

cmitch said...

MTT hand - I'm calling also. Like your logic.

set over set - First let me say, I have folded a set in a live full ring cash game before, but it was close to 200BB effective stacks and the guy was the nittiest player at the table. I could see playing this hand differently if the effective stacks were much larger like 200BB, but this hand definitely highlights why 6 max cash games have so much more variance than full ring cash games.

IMO, you have to shove over his $180 bet because he completed the action from the BB after 4 other people where already in the pot. He could literally have atc. You lose against two pf hands (33, 99), but you dominate so much more of even his check raising the field range. He could have Ad4d, 4d5d, Ad9d, Kd9d, 23/29 (not too likely), 39, AdXd, etc. Given his range out of the BB, I don't see how you could fold in a 6 max game for 100BB. How you do you think he is playing the hands that I listed above? I think he is definitely making the same raise with two pair, a straight flush draw and with a pair and a flush draw.

Didn't mean to come of as sounding harsh last night, but I still think it was just a cooler.

Shrike said...

Set over set - standard cooler I'm not gettign away from. The hand really plays itself, no?

pokerpeaker said...

Even Harrington says you're an "idiot" if you fold a set in that situation. I'll never fold a set in that situation unless it's a situation C-Mitch is describing. He could just as easily have an overpair or a flush draw. It's a cooler.


As for the MTT, your read was dead on, you were ahead, and you lost. What else can you do there? If you want to make the money I suppose you can fold there but I don't think that's your mentality. And it shouldn't be.

Gnome said...

In no way did you clearly misplay this hand.
Lots of opponents' flush draws would be happy to get it in on that flop with so much dead money already in the middle.
And bumping it up preflop would have been bad too because you lose implied odds by turning your hand into a semibluff.
Almost never fold in this spot.

Loretta8 said...

JJ hand is an insta call imo

Fuel55 said...

Surely that set over set math is when VILLAIN has a pair too? And not AK for instance.

Ryan said...

agree with loretta. calling JJ there every time.

and never folding that set. nh