Monday, September 8, 2008

Checking the turn and calling the river with an overpair

I am in training all week so I don't have any internet access (well, I do but very limited opportunity to be online) and as such, I won't be able to post much... though admittedly, recently, I haven't really been posting much. I've been pretty busy during the day at work and that was usually when I used to blog so hence the decline... It is great that the football season is back... and I mean, how bout them ECU Pirates!? Funny thing is, on Saturday, when I woke up around 11:30am, I thought about actually driving down to Greenville... but then again, I thought, with the hurricane and stuff, I won't bother... too bad cuz I coulda seen them punk WVU live. Pat Who!? I love it. I mean the mountaineers were pwned. And now, ECU is ranked #14. First time that they're in the top 25 since the David Garrard era. That win against WVU was almost as big as the win against Miami back in 1999... I will say the only difference is that in 1999, the game was actually held at NC State because Hurricane Floyd (or Fran... I can't remember) flooded the campus. To say that that was a memorable win is an understatement... anyways... I feel like I need to post some poker related stuff... after all, this is supposed to be a poker blog... I just haven't had a chance to really sit down and think about what to post and such.

So, following is a situation which I thought might illustrate situations where it's probably a good idea not to go too crazy with an overpair.

1-2NL Full Ring
Relevant stacks:

Seat 3: RecessRampage ($245.05)
Seat 8: UTG ($166.80)
Seat 9: UTG+1 ($220.05)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [Qh Qd]
UTG calls $2
UTG+1 calls $2
2 folds
RecessRampage raises to $11 from MP
4 folds
UTG calls $9
UTG+1 calls $9

*** FLOP *** [5s Jd 8h]
UTG checks
UTG+1 checks
RecessRampage bets $25
UTG has 15 seconds left to act
UTG calls $25
UTG+1 folds

So here, pretty standard. I have an overpair, the flop is jack high so I cbet. I get one caller from the UTG who limp called the raise preflop. At this point, I'm putting him on a hand like middle pair, maybe a J, possibly a straight draw and maybe a set.

*** TURN *** [5s Jd 8h] [Kh]
UTG checks
RecessRampage checks

When the K came, I actually wasn't too worried about him hitting a king. I mean there's really only one hand that he could have here that would make sense for him to have a K and that is KJ. Admittedly, above, I mentioned that he could have a straight draw but during the hand, I think I actually felt that he was more likely to have a pocket pair than he would have a straight draw like T9 or 67. I don't really know why, it was kind of a feeling that I had where I felt that this player was more likely to limp/call a raise pre with a pocket pair rather than a connector. Based on that read, I decided that checking here would be ok. With the K hitting, if I bet, I felt that all worse hands would fold (except maybe JT or something, which is only a part of his hand range which includes any pocket pair) and I could be put in an awkward spot if I get checkraised. So, I decided to check behind.

*** RIVER *** [5s Jd 8h Kh] [7d]
UTG has 15 seconds left to act
UTG bets $50
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage calls $50

On the river, I'm not gonna lie. I actually hated that card since it hits another pocket pair that I thought he could have. It also completes a straight draw even though I felt that that was less likely. I really felt that on the flop, it was likely that he either had a set or a middle pair. 7 is right around the spot that would hit also though, if he did float me on the flop with middle pair and the fact that he's betting out the river indicates that he has a hand. The thing is, in this instance, the way I played it, I would have to pretty much call every single time because my hand is so underrepresented. However, this board is actually getting crappier and crappier for my hand so maybe there's a case to be made for folding. But based on the way I played this, there's no way for my opponent to think that I would have an overpair. So, considering that, I made the call. The more and more I think about this hand, I'm just not sure if in the long run I'm losing value here or on the turn.

In this hand though, it turns out I saved some money... of course, that's just results oriented thinking...

*** SHOW DOWN ***
UTG shows [Jc Jh] three of a kind, Jacks
RecessRampage mucks
UTG wins the pot ($183) with three of a kind, Jacks
RecessRampage adds $40.95

Of course, jacks was not a hand that I thought he could have. How he doesn't raise with jacks from UTG is beyond me but, to each their own.

Would you have played it differently? (I'm assuming a lot of you would) Any feedback would be appreciated. Have a nice week. It's very unlikely that I will post anything until the weekend.


Gnome said...

I would bet and fold the turn.
It isn't that checking behind the turn and paying off the river is a bad play in general; instead it's that I feel like this is a great situation to fire again.
In this hand, the King is a great scarecard, but your opponent may have a hard time believing that it hit you. So I think you widen your range by betting the turn, and I also think you do get value from lesser hands.
There are lots of Jx hands that will call, as well as many drawing hands.
I just feel like there is value in betting a scarecard/overcard when you have a lesser hand that still has significant showdown value. I don't think you'll get check-raised often by worse hands.

Anonymous said...

You did well to lose the minimum. If he would have had balls and bet his set on the flop, who knows what have happened, because you are likely raising in that spot to a call, and then what do you do, shut down??? Not likely.

Moral of the story, bet your sets!