Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Leaving money on the table

Can you believe it? An actual poker post from yours truly. This hand came up last night and I wasn't sure if I left some money on the table by not betting the river.

Full Tilt Poker Game #: Table Ward (edu, 6 max) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em
Villain is in the BB with $384 to start
I'm on the button.

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [Jd Js]
3 folds
Hero raises to $14
SB folds
Villain calls $10

*** FLOP *** [Kc 6h 9h]
Villain has 15 seconds left to act
Villain checks
Hero bets $22
Villain calls $22

Any thoughts on the bet here? Honestly, I considered checking behind. If this were a rainbow thought, I am totally comfortable checking behind here but with the heart draw and semi drawish board, I thought I would bet out. Am I turning JJ into a bluff here? I don't think so but any thoughts on that would be appreciated.

*** TURN *** [Kc 6h 9h] [6c]
Villain checks
Hero checks

I didn't like the villain calling and seeing the 6 come on the turn. If he has a K, it could be that he would raise me... or just call with a K weak kicker? Either way, I figured I would check behind here to keep the pot small. Betting here would definitely make my JJ a bluff here, right?

*** RIVER *** [Kc 6h 9h 6c] [5s]
Villain checks
Hero checks

This is where I hesitated but wussed out and checked. In hindsight, I am wondering if I am leaving money on the table here by not betting. In case your thought was that he would only call with a hand that beats you, I totally disagree. It's rare for someone to checkraise the river. Checkraising river seems like such a -EV move to me. You announce that you have a big hand, you can only do it if the opponent bets, and again, you're missing out on the value every time the opponent checks behind with a hand that would have called your bet. So, generally speaking, on the river, if someone checks, they have a weakish hand. That doesn't mean it's a weakish hand that will fold. So, of course, if he had a K, he would call. But I could see him calling with TT, a 9, 77, 88, or even a 5 (like Ah5h or something). All the other hands like a 6 or a boat, set, straight, woulda bet at some point and definitely would bet the river for fear of losing value. So, when he checks, should I bet here? And I'm not looking to get him to fold a better hand. I'm actually looking to get value with my second pair. Is that retarded based on the action? I'm not sure. My JJ is clearly under repped so maybe there's room for value bet? Thoughts please.

And for anyone who cares, here's the showdown (even though, IMO, for the purpose of discussion, showdown is irrelevant). And no, Bruechips, I don't have stats on this guy.

*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero shows [Jd Js] two pair, Jacks and Sixes
Villain mucks [As 9s] - two pair, Nines and Sixes
Hero wins the pot ($71) with two pair, Jacks and Sixes

5 comments:

Shrike said...

Isn't this an appropriate spot to bet anywhere from 1/3 to 2/3 pot on the river?

-PL

Mike Maloney said...

I like betting on the river, because I think you frequently get people buying into your flop bet as a bluff, and will call you down with second pair. Yeah, you might run into the occasional person with top pair and a weak kicker who just didn't want to play it too hard, but like you said, you're getting a lot of hands that you beat to call with a bet, and there's minimal danger of running into a check-raise.

Ha, me telling RR that he's leaving money on the table in a hand. Irony.

pokerpeaker said...

Well played, nit.

spritpot said...

I will absolutely comment on any post that mentions us because I am a hit slut.

I think it's worth a thin vb if you're pretty sure this guy isn't capable of check-raise bluffing the river. The fact that hearts missed means there's an obvious missed draw out there that you can represent and get paid off.

You will value-own yourself vs. KJ sometimes though. A9 isn't that different from KJ in this spot, so there's a good chance he'd play it the same way (I would often at least).

Why not bet the turn instead? You think he'll check-raise you with a draw sometimes even after the board pairs?

-bruechips

AnguilA said...

I'm trying to extract more value out of hands like this, and I find myself many times betting in that same spot. I used to think that I will only get called by a better hand but I have found out that a 9 is calling there many times.