Saturday, May 16, 2009

Finishing up the KK hand

Great comments everyone so thank you for that. Hell, Jordan even went as far to do a whole post on it. The reason why I posted this in the first place was because I really wasn't sure what the best course of action was and what I ended up doing resulted in me doing the "right" thing money wise but I was certain that whatever analysis I did at that point would be almost impossible for it to not be results oriented so I decided to pose the question here.

As you loyal readers know, I've pretty much abandoned strategy/poker thought posts and even though part of it could be blamed on me doing other things and not having as much time or the desire to put the effort into blogging, part of me was that I no longer wanted to share my thoughts and hole cards publicly where I don't even change my screenname (even if I did, you can still google recessrampage and you will come here, I think) so I just thought it would be -EV. However, there's a good chance I'm gonna kill my RecessRampage account so I figured I don't really care anymore. But that's for a different post.

On the KK hand, here's the recap.

Full Tilt Poker Game #12167653280: Table Stonewater - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:19:34 ET - 2009/05/11
Seat 1: The Jeltz ($207.15)
Seat 2: ZMAE ($137.25)
Seat 3: eddymoosh ($87.15)
Seat 4: pmow2131 ($358.15)
Seat 5: AAces Again ($159.65)
Seat 6: RecessRampage ($200)
Seat 7: prettydevil1 ($200)
Seat 8: zoitkiller ($298.80)
Seat 9: bombkiller ($273.75)
The Jeltz posts the small blind of $1
ZMAE posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [Kc Kh]
eddymoosh calls $2
pmow2131 folds
AAces Again folds
RecessRampage raises to $9
prettydevil1 has 15 seconds left to act
prettydevil1 folds
zoitkiller calls $9
bombkiller calls $9
The Jeltz folds
ZMAE calls $7
eddymoosh calls $7

I'm not gonna lie, when the two guys behind me called, I was hoping one of the blinds would try to squeeze. Instead, I am in a nightmare situation with KK seeing a flop 5 handed.

*** FLOP *** [Jc 8s 9d]
ZMAE has 15 seconds left to act
ZMAE checks
eddymoosh checks
RecessRampage ???

And this is where I left off. The flop is freakin horrible for KK in a 5 handed pot. With so many callers, the board is more likely to have hit someone. The question is how strong? There was the UTG limper who then called my raise after 3 other callers (including the blind). So I eliminate AA or QQ from UTG because he would have to repop and as a shorty, actually, I felt that it was more likely that he didn't have a pair at all because it would just seem so standard for the shorty to shove in that spot hoping for a race. The question was the BB. He could really have anything so at this point, I wasn't interested in narrowing down his hand range. The CO and the button's range was tricky but I felt that the button would have tried to squeeze if he had a hand like AK or AQ so he probably also had a moderate strength hand.

In other words, a lot of the preflop action lead me to believe that everyone had a moderate strength hand so I was about to bet for approximately $35 like a lot of people advocated. The problem was, if I get called from either the CO or Button, there's really no card I would like to see other than KK. So I felt like I was setting myself off to get bluffed off what could be the best hand. On the same token, I couldn't shove over the top if someone were to raise me so in the end, I decided that if I bet out here, I would be turning what could still be my best hand into a bluff. Rather, I want to see what develops. My thought was that if either the CO or Button bets and the two players in front of me folds, I was gonna call and then lead out on the blank turn. I felt that against the CO/Button's range that would bet the flop, I have a better chance of being ahead. Again, this could be a wrong train of thought but that's what I was thinking (honesty HAS TO count for something, right?). And this is also one of those spots where I would rather have QQ instead of KK so that I would also have a inside straight draw...

So anyways, this is what I did...

RecessRampage checks
zoitkiller has 15 seconds left to act
zoitkiller bets $36
bombkiller folds
ZMAE folds
eddymoosh raises to $78.15, and is all in
RecessRampage folds
RecessRampage adds $9
zoitkiller calls $42.15
eddymoosh shows [Ts Qd]
zoitkiller shows [Jd Jh]
*** TURN *** [Jc 8s 9d] [5c]
*** RIVER *** [Jc 8s 9d 5c] [2c]
eddymoosh shows a straight, Queen high
zoitkiller shows three of a kind, Jacks
eddymoosh wins the pot ($199.30) with a straight, Queen high

I was shocked to see the top set from the CO. I couldn't believe that he didn't repop me pre. And again, as I mentioned above, if no one came over the top, I would have called and when the 5 came, I probably would have bet into the guy so I would have lost more money in that scenario but I felt that he could easily do this with JT, T9, AJ which are all realistic holdings. Of course, 88 and 99 came into my head but you really can't always be afraid of sets. And being that my line would be really weird (call flop OOP and then bet into the guy on the turn), I think a lot of worse hands will still call.

Again, I really don't know what the best line to take in this situation. I agree with the thoughts of cbetting but I'm also wondering if varying the amount would be an option. Maybe instead of betting $35-40, what about betting about half pot? Maybe like $25ish? Despite all the comments though, I really hate betting out here because my hand can't stand up to a raise and most hands that I even beat are gonna raise me, including the ones that I am losing to. In other words, all sets, flopped straights, two pair, JT, 9T, 8T will probably all raise me... Betting out just seems a little spewy, even if that's the right answer.

Anyone have a more compelling argument here?

5 comments:

HighOnPoker said...

I don't have a better answer, but I have a better question...

What would you have done if there wasn't a re-raise? In other words, if the zoit raises and everyone else folds (or eddy only calls), then what? Do you call anyway? Because if so, you are better off betting in the first place. On the flip side, do you just outright fold to a bet from the CO? In this case, the situation developed such that you had to fold after the check, because you were facing TWO better hands. But if you were facing only one, you would've called and then led out, losing more than the $35 c-bet you considered making. In other words, if not for the re-raise, you would've lost more with your check-call-then-lead-out strategy than your bet-and-fold-to-a-raise strategy.

BLAARGH! said...

The dude with JJ I think made a good play by limping... it's a pretty tough raise there with a hand that's too easily dominated... just take the cheap set-mine and dump to scary flops. The limp with KK was def bad after the first limper but that was a great laydown on the flop. I think your reasoning was spot on.
(lol - look who's giving advice! Just ignore me!)
I'm going to guess that JJ would probably flat if you raised pf, do you think you'd get away from your hand on the flop in that instance, or go broke to the set?

SirFWALGMan said...

I like your play. Which means your doing it wrong. So there.

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Sia said...

Wow. I would have bet big post flop and lost all my money. I certainly wouldn't have anticipated top set from anyone. I also wouldn't have put anyone on already making the straight. Therefore, I would have tried to just bet off anyone on the straight draw with a giant post flop bet. I would think that, at that point, the best hand i'd be up against is someone who was calling the pre-flop raise with A/J suited or something like that

Hence, I would have lost all my money. Pretty standard really.

-PouringReign