Thursday, July 10, 2008

Back to regular programming (ie poker content) and quick clarification

Quick clarification in regards to my previous post about the mortgage rant. I am in no way defending the idiot mortgage companies that did what they did in dishing out loans that every reasonable person could have seen as a bad idea. Nor does that mean that I am calling any of the mortgage brokers or people who work for the mortgage companies idiots either (so Jamyhawk, if you are reading this, please relax). Everyone to an extent were blinded by the crazy growth at the time. The loan officers were generally pushing loans because, well, that's how they make money. The loan companies probably offered incentives where if you sold/closed x amount of loans, you get paid x amount extra. So, they're just doing their jobs. I have no pity for the executives of the companies though that made those decisions who are now going under because like some of you pointed out, you HAD TO KNOW that that was coming. But it didn't matter. It was close now and worry about it later mentality and they're paying the price for it. The rant earlier was based on the article I read and it was not trying to point the blame on any one party because pretty much everyone is in this. But like Willwonka said, where's the reward for people who are being prudent and careful and saving (ie, losing tons of money in the stock market)? I mean... I don't even like to look at my portfolio right now cuz it's so depressing... and I'm well diversified too. Still doesn't help when everything is going down (one or two sectors going up like energy and emerging markets are not offsetting the losses I'm experiencing in other industries).

Ok, now on to poker.

Last night, I played the Mookie for the first time since the BBT3. Tuning into BDR where everyone there were slooooooooooooooooooooooooooowly getting drunk (drinking soco at a snail's pace... I mean come on) made me really wish I was down in Okie Vegas. :) (I jest, of course. After listening to Buddy rap on the karaoke machine, I had to reluctantly go to bed - and thanks for the call IT!) Unfortunately, it was not to be but it sounded like they were having a blast. I'm expecting some dial-a-shots tonight. I'll come through this time.

As for the Mookie itself, I didn't do too well. This was my pretty much bust out hand that I am still kicking myself for not folding because it was such an obvious hand...

Full Tilt Poker Game #7158775480: The Mookie (53696736), Table 1 - 300/600 Ante 75 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:29:03 ET - 2008/07/10
Seat 1: Obie315 (43,903)
Seat 2: HighOnPoker (16,420)
Seat 3: muhctim (9,635)
Seat 4: DrewFours (15,743)
Seat 5: Numbette (6,750)
Seat 6: bdidde (32,780)
Seat 7: PinkyStinky (18,374)
Seat 8: RecessRampage (18,395)
Obie315 antes 75
HighOnPoker antes 75
muhctim antes 75
DrewFours antes 75
Numbette antes 75
bdidde antes 75
PinkyStinky antes 75
RecessRampage antes 75
muhctim posts the small blind of 300
DrewFours posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [Ac As]
Numbette folds
bdidde folds
PinkyStinky folds
RecessRampage raises to 1,800
Obie315 folds
HighOnPoker calls 1,800
muhctim folds
DrewFours calls 1,200

*** FLOP *** [7d 5c 6s]
DrewFours checks
RecessRampage bets 4,500
HighOnPoker calls 4,500
DrewFours folds

This board sucks for AA. When Jordan called, I knew he had a pretty big hand or a big draw. And I'm not trying to sound cocky about it. Not many hands would smooth call here in this situation so his hands were fairly limited. My initial thought was he either has a set, possibly a straight/two pair, or 88 for an overpair and an OESD. But I have to think with 88, he would raise here. The smooth call scared the shit out of me... nonetheless, Jordan gets paid off... he's lucky I'm such a donk.

*** TURN *** [7d 5c 6s] [2s]
RecessRampage checks
HighOnPoker has 15 seconds left to act
HighOnPoker bets 6,600
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage has requested TIME
HighOnPoker: you got a lotta time in that time bank
RecessRampage: I'm not good enough to fold this <--- but my mouse was hovering over "fold"
HighOnPoker: then dont
PirateLawyer (Observer): shoooooove?
RecessRampage: ah hell
RecessRampage raises to 12,020, and is all in
HighOnPoker calls 3,445, and is all in
RecessRampage shows [Ac As]
HighOnPoker shows [5h 5d]
Uncalled bet of 1,975 returned to RecessRampage
RecessRampage: nh

This is gonna sound lame but PL making the comment there actually made me think, ah hell. I hate placing the blame there but I kinda wish I had the observer chat off because I am fairly certain I was so close to folding and then when he said shove, I was like, yeah, what the hell, it's only the mookie. Still, it pisses me off that I know I'm good enough to make the laydown and I didn't (and this part is DEFINITELY NOT ON PL). Well, which means I'm NOT good enough to make the laydown. I fuckin suck. Obviously.

*** RIVER *** [7d 5c 6s 2s] [8h]
RecessRampage shows a pair of Aces
HighOnPoker shows three of a kind, Fives
HighOnPoker wins the pot (35,390) with three of a kind, Fives
RecessRampage: so obv <--- well said

I know a lot of MTTers might say that's just a cooler but I disagree. I sniffed it out but I wasn't good enough to listen to my instincts. I mean I am nit after all. See below:

Full Tilt Poker Game : Table Rosy (deep 6) - $2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:42:41 ET - 2008/07/09
Seat 1: Rocker855 ($237.30), is sitting out
Seat 2: sicklol ($1,507)
Seat 3: SaxManMike ($400)
Seat 4: OhYesTGPFA ($1,253)
Seat 5: RecessRampage ($975.10) <--- SB
Seat 6: passtheganja ($1,098.90) <--- BB

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RecessRampage [Jh As]
sicklol folds
SaxManMike folds
OhYesTGPFA folds
RecessRampage raises to $12
passtheganja has 15 seconds left to act
passtheganja has requested TIME
passtheganja raises to $36.60
RecessRampage calls $24.60

In a deep stack game, I really don't like to 4 bet with a marginal hand like AJ even in a blind v blind battle. Maybe I should. I don't know. Thoughts?

*** FLOP *** [Js 9s 4d]
RecessRampage checks
passtheganja has 15 seconds left to act
passtheganja bets $38.90
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage raises to $155
passtheganja has 15 seconds left to act
passtheganja has requested TIME
passtheganja calls $116.10

I was quite surprised with this call. I thought for sure the hand would end right here.

*** TURN *** [Js 9s 4d] [8s]
RecessRampage has 15 seconds left to act
RecessRampage checks
passtheganja has 15 seconds left to act
passtheganja has requested TIME
passtheganja bets $127.50
RecessRampage calls $127.50

I didn't know what to make of this bet but I started getting a bad feeling about it. I have top pair and a nut flush draw but being so deep, I am not sure this is an area that I want to really ship it in. And if you thought, you could check raise again, it's the same as shoving since I'll essentially be committing myself.

*** RIVER *** [Js 9s 4d 8s] [Jc] <--- talk about a set up card
RecessRampage checks
passtheganja has 15 seconds left to act
passtheganja has requested TIME
passtheganja bets $779.80, and is all in
RecessRampage folds
Uncalled bet of $779.80 returned to passtheganja
passtheganja mucks
passtheganja wins the pot ($635.20)

I am fairly certain this is a good fold. There's not a single hand where I can think of where this guy ships it in on the river that I have beat. I think a lot of people will call here and the guy will show a boat and they'll call it a set up or something but I disagree. In a deep stack game, I think pot control is important. If the villain is doing that with a lesser J, that's extremely spewy in my opinion and he just didn't seem like the type. This was an air or monster situation and the overbet made me feel like it was a OBFV instead of a bluff. Anyone see this differently (I'm sure there are plenty)?



Poker Brian said...

But like Willwonka said, where's the reward for people who are being prudent and careful and saving (ie, losing tons of money in the stock market)? I mean... I don't even like to look at my portfolio right now cuz it's so depressing...

The reward is not panicking when the market craps out, selling at a loss, putting your money in hedges or whatnot, then when the market rebounds you make a boatload while all the people who panicked are scurrying to get back in.

Stock Market is a long term deal, if you play for a short term deal you are a day-trader, and good Laws knows I see them at Mo-Sun on some random Tuesday afternoon at Mohegan Sun... So the reward for the fiscally responsible, is a +EV play. Stock Market is just one big poker game anyway.

Far be it from me to critique anyone's poker play but it seems like in the second hand you learned from the first hand mistake and made a good laydown.

PokerFool said...

Ooooo, damn. I know that you are a better player than I, but if I was in that spot, I'd probably reluctantly hit that call button.

I mean, you'd have to put him squarely on KQ spades to fold there, right? 99 (or 44)would raise again on the flop, with all those draws out there, right?

Would pocket 4's 3-bet in a BvsB hand? What was his 3bet stat?

These Overbet river shoves are always difficult, but I would expect to see QQ-AA a fair amount of the time.

Alan aka RecessRampage said...

He would be a terrible player if he shoves on the river there with QQ-AA. He should be fairly happy to see a showdown after that type of action or be fairly confident that a player would toss trips in a blind v blind battle if he had any one of those hands. Shoving with QQ-AA on that river is a terrible, terrible move which I think will cost him money in the long run.

I think his 3 bet range is quite huge (no particular stats but any pair, two broadway cards are what comes to mind) and one thought I did have was that he could have a J with a worse kicker but it was just too close. Spades, 99, 44, 88 are all possibilties. I think it's marginal either way but I never like calling an all in on the river these days because more often than not, it's a value bet and not a pure bluff.

Shrike said...

Sorry dude, you know I didn't mean my chat remark to push you into making a bad call. :(

Like you I am just stubborn enough to overplay AA like that in the Mookie, even though I'd fold an overpair in a heartbeat in many other identical spots in other poker games. Mea culpa!

HughDuffy said...

Dude, I can't believe there is a blogger in Richmond and I'm just now finding out about it. Unreal.

HighOnPoker said...

Ironically, I think PL was still a bit steamed on his busto hand against me when I called his small all-in with 33 to his 84c. I was actually hoping that my goding helped your decision process for the worse, but I guess I have PL to thank. Thanks PL! You can shadow me any day!

SimpleStyle said...

I think the fold with AJ is good and I've been making the same fold more often lately.

Here's the way I see it. Your hand looks exactly like AJ/KJ. Any reasonable villain will put together the pieces and figure you for a jack. I'm not saying you played the hand badly up until the river; it's just tough to disguise AJ in this type of spot.

With that said, villain will have you read for a AJ/KJ and there are two reasons he will be betting the river hard:

1) He sees you as a weak player and thinks he can profitably bluff here. I think this might be the case like <25% of the time seeing as how this is blind v blind and he's asking you to fold trips.

2) He's value betting something stronger than trip Js. With the pf action I'd be very surprised to see something other than 99 for the boat. I'd say he flips up 99 like 80% of the time if not more. And the other 20% he's got a mix of KJ, the flush, QQ/KK/AA.

In the end, I think the vast majority of his range here beats your trips. Good laydown imo.

pokerpeaker said...

I"m sure he pushed thinking you would call with your trips. It's not too hard to put you on a J there, and I'm fairly certain he has a set. I see more money lost on trips then any cards other than an overpair. Very good fold.

lucko said...

Hand 1: Tournaments aren't won by making big folds. If he wants to seet mine there vs me, he will be losing money long term and I will pay him when I have an overpair.

Hand 2: I hate the raise on the flop.